FX Alerts

GBP firmer on manuf PMI

In an otherwise quiet session, sterling had initially gained 50 pips (to 1.5590) on the back of the stronger manufacturing PMI data seen for April, with the headline rising to 49.8 and the previous month revised up to 48.6. The series has been in negative territory for 3 months now, but this latest releases is at least being taken as an early sign that the economy may be able to keep its head above water in the second quarter. Note that BoE members Bailey and Broadbent speak later today.
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01/05/2013 @ 08:41 GMT

Euro remaining buoyant

The month end is instigating some decent buying of the single currency. The weaker Chicago PMI number (49.0 from 52.4) saw some decent buying interest push EURUSD to the day's high at 1.3150, with only a modest softening seen in the wake of the US consumer confidence data (68.1 from 61.9).
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30/04/2013 @ 14:04 GMT

Eurozone inflation falls

EURUSD fell down to 1.3060 (but since recovered), as CPI estimate for eurozone came in weaker at 1.2% (from 1.7%). Weaker inflation data from Germany yesterday had prepared the market for a fall in this number. Whilst we were not convinced the ECB were going to cut rates this week, this data probably seals some sort of policy action, be it a rate cut, or a change in the deposit rates or other "non-standard" measures. But it's not just about Germany. Inflation is also falling in the periphery, with the inflation rate having halved in Spain over the past 6 months, from 3.5% to 1.4%.
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30/04/2013 @ 09:14 GMT

European opening moves

We are seeing some volatility at the start of European trading, but this is to be expected on the last day of the month when a lot of month-end related flows take place. EURUSD saw a brief push above 1.31 which soon met with offers, whilst the dip in cable has met with some buyers below the 1.5480 area. German labour market numbers at 07:55 GMT will be the next focus, the market sensitive to signs of further weakness in the eurozone's biggest economy ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday.
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30/04/2013 @ 07:30 GMT

The shifting yen

Interesting to note the shift in sentiment towards the yen beyond the recent price action. We've seen this in the weekly portfolio data, which has shown Japanese investors cutting overseas holdings of investment for 6 straight weeks and not diversifying overseas as was anticipated after the BoJ decision. The weekly CFTC data has shown a reduction in the net yen short positions in the market (for non-commercial investors) and reports from investment banks also suggest that the bigger players are getting more tired with long USDJPY positions.
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29/04/2013 @ 13:47 GMT

Holding pattern for the euro

With the ECB meeting later this week and the US employment report on Friday, FX markets are starting the week on a relatively quiet footing. The single currency breathed a modest sigh of relief as local markets reacted to the formation of a government over the weekend. Italian bond yields (10 year) pushed below the 4.00% level. But this does follow a period during which the bond market was fairly immune from the fact that the country had not formed a government over this time.
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29/04/2013 @ 11:43 GMT

USD Weaker after GDP data

EURGBP firmer by around 20 pips to 1.3020 after US GDP falls short of expectations, up 2.5% ann. in Q1 (expected 3.0%). USDJPY down to 98.40.
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26/04/2013 @ 12:33 GMT

BOJ MONETARY POLICY statement

BOJ keeps monetary policy steady, pledging to increase monetary base at annual pace of 60-70 trln YEN
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26/04/2013 @ 04:41 GMT

JPY CORE CPI

Japan's core consumer prices fell 0.5 percent in March from a year earlier, suggesting the Bank of Japan faces a tough task to achieve its 2 percent inflation target.
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25/04/2013 @ 23:40 GMT

NZ TRADE balance

New Zealand reported a bigger than expected trade surplus in March. NZ said there was a surplus of 718 million for the month. Exports for the month were up 13.3 percent on the previous month.
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25/04/2013 @ 22:54 GMT

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