gbp

Kiwi risks

Data/Event Risks EUR: Focus on the German production numbers after the stronger orders data yesterday gave the euro a lift, although it was notable that the euro failed to sustain the gains later on. Production is seen falling 0.1% in March, after 0.5% gain during February. NZD: Labour market data is released at 23:45 GMT, with the unemployment rate seen nudging lower to 6.8%. Note that AUDNZD has been moving lower for the previous 7 weeks now, but comments overnight threaten a continuation of this trend.
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08/05/2013 @ 06:46 GMT

EUR and GBP hurting, JPY surging

The afternoon session is seeing both sterling and the single currency losing ground to the dollar, whilst the JPY has once again taken fright at the proximity of the 100 level on USDJPY. As such, EURJPY has retreated fairly sharply from the 130 level, with GBPUSD back below the 1.55 level. A close below here has not been seen for over a week now. There appear to be no specific reasons for the moves seen this afternoon, the only general feeling is that traders are reluctant to push significant breakouts, preferring the comfort of more established ranges.
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07/05/2013 @ 14:40 GMT

Ahead of payrolls...

Markets are treading water ahead of the US numbers later today. The main exception has been the euro, where there has been some modest buying through the 1.31 level as some take advantage of the lower levels. As we mentioned in our daily, the dollar reaction to data surprises has been falling of late, so becoming less strongly correlated with positive and negative data surprises.
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03/05/2013 @ 09:40 GMT

Trading payrolls

Data/Event Risks GBP: A close eye on the services PMI data. The manufacturing series was modestly better than expected and this gave sterling a decent lift in the middle of the week to 1.5606 Fibonacci level on cable, which remains the upside level to watch. USD: The employment report today will keep ranges on the tight side ahead of the numbers. Market looks for 140k gain in headline payrolls, although the recent run of data suggests we could see a softer number. Unemployment rate is seen steady at 7.6%.
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03/05/2013 @ 07:03 GMT

GBP firmer on manuf PMI

In an otherwise quiet session, sterling had initially gained 50 pips (to 1.5590) on the back of the stronger manufacturing PMI data seen for April, with the headline rising to 49.8 and the previous month revised up to 48.6. The series has been in negative territory for 3 months now, but this latest releases is at least being taken as an early sign that the economy may be able to keep its head above water in the second quarter. Note that BoE members Bailey and Broadbent speak later today.
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01/05/2013 @ 08:41 GMT

Dollar retreat

Data/Event Risks GBP: Strong focus on the manufacturing PMI data and with liquidity lower owing to the holiday in many European countries, there is the risk of some outsized moves in sterling. The market looks for 48.5 reading and anything above the 50 level would be very welcome and would place a decent bid under sterling. Note that BoE members Broadbent and Bailey speak at 17:00 and 19:00 GMT respectively.
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01/05/2013 @ 06:55 GMT

European opening moves

We are seeing some volatility at the start of European trading, but this is to be expected on the last day of the month when a lot of month-end related flows take place. EURUSD saw a brief push above 1.31 which soon met with offers, whilst the dip in cable has met with some buyers below the 1.5480 area. German labour market numbers at 07:55 GMT will be the next focus, the market sensitive to signs of further weakness in the eurozone's biggest economy ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday.
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30/04/2013 @ 07:30 GMT

The new yen

Data/Event Risks USD: The main focus will be with the consumer confidence data at 14:00 GMT. Last release saw the headline reading fall to 59.7, with the market looking for a small rebound to 61.0. Dollar has been more resilient to weaker US data recently, partly owing to weaker than expected readings in non-US data.
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30/04/2013 @ 07:10 GMT

The rate cut dilemma

Data/Event Risks USD: Today’s data will be of only minor interest for the dollar. The income and spending numbers at 12:30 have been superseded by the GDP numbers on Friday and the pending home sales is never a big issue for market unless it’s drastically away from expectations.
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29/04/2013 @ 06:59 GMT

Big relief on sterling

GBPUSD up more than 1-big figure to 1.5400 after GDP rose 0.3% in Q1 (expected 0.1%). After the 0.3% decline in Q4 2012, this means that the UK economy was essentially flat over the past 6 months. The reaction on the currency is a lot for a GDP release 0.2% above expectations, but this reflects 2 things. Firstly, the fact that the market was fearful of a decline leading to increased pressure for more QE. Secondly, the media (for what it's worth) will now not be able to talk of a tripe-dip recession. This also means that the uptrend in cable in place from a technical perspective.
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25/04/2013 @ 08:38 GMT